UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@DamienHandel420 

Especially since it's the only WMMA fight on the whole card lol + she hasn't proven anything in the UFC so far.

in the last 5 main events we have had the underdogs winning 4 times and a draw which caused the underdog to retain the belt. (that doesnt even include OMalley winning the belt)

just saying.....

Islam with enough time to rehydrate is something different though... I'll still be rooting for Volk. I'd love to see a guy like him being double champ. 

* Edited at 10.15.2023, 2:03 AM ET *

My favorite fight besides the obvious main and co-main has to be that Walker vs Ankalaev fight.

Even tho the main stream hype around Walker died, seeing him in a title fight would be ******* halirous and insane. 

@quazquaz 

Lol you say that he barely sc****d by but he finished him didnt he? Hes only 23 years old. He is undedeated 4-0 finished 3 of those by sub, Dude is leggit. How many times has elliot been finished? he was grappling for his life against altimirano and eating some headkick on the feet. Mokaev is gonna finish him in the first rd I have a feeling. Elliot is veteran savvy for sure dude will grab gloves and do all the dity thing he can to win. but Mokaev is a 5-1 fav for a reason

but you gotta keep in mind mokaev got his knee fcked up bad in his last fight

This card is going to be one for the books 

I wonder about the Trevor Peek fight. Let the underdog inside of you take over Peek! Deliver a barn burner for us!

Also i've been making predictions in all ufc cards for a while now (at least 4 cards). When is my UFC ranking tier gonna show up under my name ? 

* Edited at 10.15.2023, 9:45 AM ET *

Borz, TKO, R3 
Kamaru will be Khamzat's biggest challenge to date and this one will be a WAR. I believe Kamaru will stuff many takedown attempts, which will force the fight on the feet. The game plan for both fighters will not matter and the last round will become a slugfest with Khamzat catching Kamaru's chin in the final minutes 🐺
 

Makhachev vs. Volkanovski II
Alexander Volkanovski, TKO, R4
Volk overcoming his mistakes last time Islam won’t be ready for the pace volk will walk him down to a finish

Usman vs. Chimaev
Kamaru Usman, TKO, R3
First round will be close the second and third chimaev will walk usman down but get countered late in the third or khamzat by dec

Elliott vs. Mokaev
Muhammad Mokaev, SUB, R2
Mokaev fighting the best Tim Elliot we’ve ever seen so I’m heavily excited

You've made 32 UFC predictions, that's like 2.5 cards, assuming it's all been from the last 2 months or so. Points are based on the last 8 UFC cards IIRC so you've got some way to go. I don't know what the requirement to advance from no rank to tomato rank is at.

Wood vs. Naimov
Nathaniel Wood, DEC
I have a strange feeling about this fight. After seeing Wood getting dropped by Fili, maybe Naimov can do the same to him, but if he does, he's for sure gonna hunt for the finish.

Oh Jesus, that's gonna take a while. Thanks for the info. 

Dumas vs. Azaitar
Abu Azaitar, DEC
Azaitar decision is just this gut feeling I get sometimes. Gonna trust it.

Jubli vs. Breeden
Anshul Jubli, TKO, R2
I don't rate Anshul at all, but this is a layup even for him.

Wood vs. Naimov
Nathaniel Wood, DEC
Nathaniel "The Decision" Wood will emerge victorious.

Yu Frey vs. Dudakova
Victoria Dudakova, TKO, R1
Dudakova R1 TKO, bigger, stronger, younger, more aggressive and a lot to prove.

Silva vs. Magomedov
Bruno Silva, TKO, R1
Some dude in Russia was actually overpowering Sharabutdin before his lackeys joined in, Bruno Silva brutal R1 KO.

Azaitar vs Dumas  
Dumas KO RD 2

When this fight was originally booked I thought Dumas was going to destroy Abu. Now knowing that Dumas is not as advertised makes this a lot more interesting. We know his grappling is really bad but stylistically he is getting a striker so I don’t think he will have to worry about grappling in this fight. Its really weird actually, Dumas is a striker yet through 3 ufc/dwcs fights hes had over 17 minutes of grappling in 23 minutes of cage time. We have hardly seen him strike because everyone is trying (and succeeding) to take him down. In the few minutes he has been standing (the fremd fight) his striking was effective. I say effective & not good because while he was landing and doing a lot of damage to fremd, his technique looked so awkward. Dumas was throwing everything he had into each punch & as a result was overswinging and leaving his chin out there, something fremd capitalized on. What I did like from dumas’s striking was how quick he was. He was getting crazy in there just throwing wild but i really liked how easy he could mix in the kicks. While I doubt abu wrestles in this fight, there are two things that still worry me about dumas striking. First, is the defense. Dumas goes in there to take your head off, as a result he is there to be hi. The second thing is his gas tank; i'm not sure how good it is standing. If he fights at that same pace he was against fremd, he looks like he will slow down a lot. While there is a lot to dislike with dumas, theres a whole lot more I dislike about Abu. The main problem I have with him and his brother is dedication to the game. These guys are disgustingly rich and just fight as a hobby. With Ottman, at least he looks like a guy who puts in the work while training & we see him always with the guys at XC. But with Abu, there is nothing. Just take a look at his ig, we are one week from the fight and there isn’t a single photo of him training for this fight; who knows if he even bothers to show up. Abu hasn’t really cared about fighting since going to the ufc either; hes been in the ufc since 2016 and this will only be his 3rd fight. His most recent appearance against MAB was a very strange one. Abu was actually getting the better of MAB for the first 7-8 minutes but his cardio just completely failed him. MAB is a cardio fighter so I don’t blame abu for death gassing, what I do blame him for is the gameplan. In the striking exchanges he was actually winning by being an ape; he was spamming powerful hooks but he kept clinching up with MAB (where he is at his best) and getting picked apart which lead to him death gassing. I also noticed there is a huge size discrepancy here; abu is short and stocky at 5”9 and dumas is very tall at 6”2. Thats going to favor dumas here because he will be able to land that head kick at will. I think abu is going to be able to land on dumas a lot, but dumas has a big size, speed, and athleticism advantage. I really wonder about the cardio of the two. We know abu’s is trash but dumas’s cardio is still a mystery to me. Given the abu dhabi heat and the pace both like to set, I think its fair to say both are going to get tired. This is an ugly fight but i have to go with the younger guy who actually trains. 

Breeden vs Jubli 
 Jubli DEC 

I really like jubli & idk why but I have a weird feeling he could struggle here. He shouldn’t and is much better than breeden but this feels like one where some bs could happen. Ordinarily I would be heavy on the fade india side but jubli is special. Compared to any other indian fighter, Jubli has actual skills, fight iq, and a well rounded game. He also has real wins & not a padded record like we usually see from indian fighters. Now, Jubli is still very much a developing fighter but the talent is there. I remember being really impressed with Jubli’s striking when I first watched him but on second rewatch it wasn’t as clean as I remember. Offensively he looked great, very good timing on his shots, good head movement, great shot selection, and just really clean boxing technique overall. However, I noticed that as Jubli got tired that head movement went away. He is also very heavy on his lead leg so a good kicker will exploit that. Despite these flaws I think his technique is very clean, I especially love his check left hook; the timing on it is very good. Jubli also showed he has grappling in his back pocket against jeka. Coming from india, I do worry what happens when jubli faces a good wrestler but that won’t matter here since breeden can’t/won’t wrestle. Breeden is a very limited fighter. He is just a tough dude who swings hard & can take an ass whooping. He doesn’t move his head at all and just walks you down throwing heat. On the feet I think jubli is much better. He should be able to counter off of Breeden’s predictable striking & will really hurt him with body shots and his jab. If Jubli wants I think he should be able to get breeden down pretty easily. He has the bjj to keep him down but breeden is pretty good at getting up. My main worry in this fight is that jubli beats him up but can’t get him out of there. Breeden’s best quality is that hes tough and will keep going even if hes getting his ass beat. We’ve seen Jubli get tired & subsequently seen breeden tire out his opponents from just surviving so its something to look for as the fight goes on. Even though jubli hits pretty hard he is not much of a finisher, I think he is going to put an ass whooping on Breeden for the first two, and then slow down later in the fight. Or maybe he makes me look dumb and just smokes Breeden. Either way, Breeden is not winning this fight. 

Wood vs Naimov  
Wood KO RD 3

Very weird matchmaking here. I get throwing naimov to the wolves since he shouldnt be here but giving him wood? Wood has looked phenomenal at 145 & should be fighting for a ranking, so not sure i understand this matchmaking. Naimov had that crazy upset in his debut but dont let that fool you, this guy is bad; really ******* bad. Rewatching that fight, it was nothing more than a fluke. I know people don’t like when that word gets thrown around but theres no other way to put it. Mullarkey sucks but he literally handed that win to naimov; mullarkey was controlling the action the whole fight & then for no reason did this horribly telegraphed movement & handed his chin to naimov. I mean, you really could not have handed someone an easier ko, he quite literally walked into the punch. In his fights at 145, I think naimov is among the worst males on the roster. Outside of his power there is not a single good thing I can say about him. His striking is just hooks and spinning kicks; naimov doesnt throw a ton of combos either, instead throwing powerful single shots. His defense is nonexistent & im honestly shocked nobody has koed him yet. His fight vs colin anglin was crazy; he went life & death with anglin. Naimov was able to hurt anglin, but anglin was also hurting him with every shot & also outgrappling him. Thats anther thing, despite the last name there is no grappling at all from naimov. Im sure he has some basic understandings but he can’t grapple to save his life. He can be taken & held down so easily. Watching the fraud olivier murad dog walk him with grappling for 5 rounds was also really sad to watch. Wood is better than naimov in every single aspect of mma. I was skeptical about the move to 145 but everything has translated well, except his size. I am so impressed with how easily wood’s strength has adapted to 145; watching him outwrestle fili after being flash koed was crazy impressive. Not only is fili a great wrestler but he is a huge 145er & he couldn’t get wood off him at all. My only problem with wood at 145 is his size. Its weird because hes the same height as volk but you can clearly see that he is a former bw compared to everyone else in the division. The reason the size worries me is wood’s striking defense. Wood has a giga chin & crazy recovery but he is not afraid to take a punch on the chin (its something hes struggled with his whole career & its the reason he lost to dodson). He is so much better on the feet than naimov but if hes not careful he could get slept bad. Other than the power shot, he will light up naimov. His output is crazy, his boxing & combos are great, and he is a very heavy leg kicker which will add up. Wood is a striker by trade but he could also win with his wrestling. I would like him to fight naimov how he fought jourdain; pressure on the feet but mix in wrestling. Wood is not much of a finisher in the ufc but i really think he can get niamov out of there. Naimov has never been finished but he is getting hurt in almost every fight against people significantly worse than wood. I dont think hes ever fought someone on this level before and it is going to show. Wood is not a lock tho just simply because of his defense. Again, outside of another mullarkey scenario wood should massacre naimov. 

Frey vs Dudakova  
Dudakova SUB RD 2

Frey has one of the worst looking records ever but (imo) frey should have won 2 out of her 3 losses. I thought she beat reed and demopolos very clearly but somehow the judges dont see it. I couldnt be bothered to watch tape again on frey but thinking about how she lost those fights made me realize a lot about frey; the reason she is losing these clear cut decisions is because she doesn’t do anything to secure the win. Frey is there to win but not to fight; she doesn’t push the issue on the feet, instead trying to keep distance and point fight. She does no damage either so she only hurts herself by not putting more volume out. The same goes with her grappling. Frey is a decent grappler but much like her striking, she does nothing when she is on top. She doesn’t throw gnp, she doesn’t look to advance, and she doesnt look for submissions. She just rides out top control and hope it wins her the fight. Now, shes going from losing to bottom of the barrel wmma fighters to facing one of the best prospects her division has had in a long time. I will admit, when I first caught wind of dudakova I was not impressed; she beat a very talented maria silva but the fight was excruciatingly boring. On second rewatch, its hard to not be impressed. Dudakova tore her acl & still managed to win the fight on one leg, outgrappling a girl who is known for dominant grappling. Dudakova’s stirking is still a WIP (what wmma fighter doesnt have trash striking lol) but what makes her so special is her grappling; we have seen russians dominate in mens mma but we have never seen a female come into mma with an effective sambo style. Dudakova’s wrestling is fantastic, especially her cage wrestling. When she gets you down her top control is very suppressive. She does not let you stand up & unlike frey, she actively looks to finish the fight. Frey has always had good tdd but as someone who is 0-3 picking her, I am done giving her the benefit of the doubt. I could see a very boring dudakova decision where she gets 12+ min of control time but hopefully she gets a finish. Frey is an old woman & doesn’t like when the fight gets ugly. 

Magomedov vs Silva  
Magomedov KO RD 3

I can’t believe this is going to be the first fight of the card, however, I suppose that just speaks to how stacked this card is from top to bottom. Shara bullet is one of the more hyped prospects in a while; people have been talking about him even before he signed to the ufc. Now, I know a ton of people are already calling him a fraud. People don’t like that he has fought cans nor do they like the news about him thats on twitter (curb stomping a guy for kissing his gf, the adcc heel hook incident, etc.) but, I urge you guys to not let that cloud your judgement when choosing a winner for this fight. Has shara fought some absolute bums? Absolutely BUT, he does have wins over real people & has dominated them too. Shara’s style is so awesome to watch; he fights like a tekken character. He is super dynamic, always throwing some sort of kick/spinning ****. What I really like about his style (besides the flashiness) is how effective Shara is with his volume; he doesnt telegraph anything & all his strikes just flow together. He never stops throwing, weather in the clinch or standing up. The best example of thi came against mikhail aliakhverdan. Mikhail spent the whole fight trying to take shara down, as a result Shara spent basically the whole fight in the clinch. He was able to win (and absolutely flatline) mikhail while effectively spending 90% of the fight in the clinch. Hes also got a ko where a guy is shooting a td & shara kos him with punches mid takedown; he quite literally never stops throwing no matter what position hes in. The ufc couldnt be giving shara a better fight for his debut. Not because its a freebie (although I expect him to cruise) but because blindado is the perfect style to showcase what makes shara so special; Blindado is a brawler who wont wrestle (& isnt very effective when he does) and plods forward willing to throw down. I love bruno but going back & watching his fights, he honestly is really bad but has some insane physical qualities that win him fights. Blindado has two things that have gotten him wins in mma, his absurd natural power & his chin. Blindado’s power is honestly insane; I have never seen a middleweight with 20/23 wins by ko. Despite not being even remotely technical, any time you willingly trade with blindado you are leaving yourself at risk of getting dropped/koed. Sure, hes slow and sloppy but if he connects you will get hurt no matter what, thats what makes blindado so dangerous. Watching his tape again, I never realized just how reliant on these two qualities blindado is. He has no defense at all, relying only on his durability to get him by. Blindado has a crazy chin but he is human; you cannot expect to be able to eat everything. Blindado gets rocked badly almost every fight as a result. Against someone like shara I think he is going to get eaten alive by his diverse arsenal. Blindado is also very slow too; to engage in striking he just marches forward throwing. Its always risky picking the hyped prospect making their debut but I really think blindado is on the outs. Even when he was winning in the ufc he didn’t look good. 

* Edited at 10.15.2023, 4:26 PM ET *

Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov  
Nurmagomedov DEC 

This is a tricky one because it seems like a mismatch on paper yet I think this fight will be somewhat competitive. Said is one of those guys whos always right outside the top 15 but can never really break through. He is incredibly skilled but there are a lot of flaws in his game that I can’t stand. First is his gas tank. Said has 10 minutes of gas & loses the 3rd round of every fight almost on principle. The third rounds of the D Silva & martinez fights were so frustrating because said would either get taken down or clinched up & refuse to break from the position because hes so tired. I really thought he beat martinez but it was so frustrating to watch him just accept the clinch & coast in what was a close fight; losing as a result. The other thing that I don’t like is his wrestling. Despite the last name, Said is not a wrestling dagi. He does have wrestling & its pretty solid but he is a russian you can take down. Early in the fight Said’s wrestling is good. He defends pretty well & when he does get taken down he either pops back up or locks up his signature ninja choke. I actually hate that he will drop for subs instead of trying to defend but his ninja choke is incredible; if he locks that in the fight is over no matter who you are. Gafurov is a weird fighter to rate. He has a really good record but has not beaten anybody notable, losing to everyone hes faced who is ufc level. Despite coming up short in these fights, he is able to make them competitive by being aggressive. Gafurov is not a technical striker at all. He is an ape who just marches forward swinging bombs to try and close the distance. Nothing about muin’s game is technical; his striking consists of swinging overhangs & spinning ****. Gafurov just takes a punch to give one. Watching his fight vs castaneda, it was so concerning watching him bite on every single feint castaneda threw. At distance he was outclassed. He did make that fight close by shooting to close the distance & throwing hooks up against the fence. Gafurov’s wrestling is not that good despite the last name. He uses it much more than said does but his accuracy is terrible & he can be taken down very easily himself. In the striking I think said is significantly better. His kicks are very quick & he throws them with no telegraph. He also effortlessly mixes them in with his punches during combinations. Watching Muin bite on every feint castaneda threw means he is going to struggle a lot against a technically superior striker. I think muin’s only chance on the feet is by making this fight ugly, which is entirely possible but I really don’t see him being able to have much success. I honestly don’t think muin’s wrestling is good enough to get said down. He uses it mostly to close the distance & his accuracy is very bad. Said does have a terrible habit of giving up his back off of spins. I assume gafurov will be able to capitalize on this but again, not impressed with hsi wrestling. The third round is going to be really interesting. Both guys have poor gas tanks but gafurov gives all he can when hes gassed; that might be enough to secure the 3rd round. For the first two i think said can avoid the power shots of muin and pick him apart with kicks. I could also see a sub if muin shoots for a td as he leaves his neck out when he shoots. 

Elliot vs Mokaev  
Mokaev SUB RD 3

I really dont know how to feel about mokaev. His wrestling is phenomenal & he clearly is a special talent but his performances in the ufc do not wow me. Hes dominated pretty much everyone hes fought but there are just so many moments or dull performances from him that its hard to get fully behind the hype train. Now this can mostly be explained due to mokaev being very young as a fighter. There’s no doubt he will be at the top of the division but he finds himself in a lot of bad positions at times or does stupid things. Mokaev has been able to win because his skills are better than his opponents at the end of the day but its concerning to see this happen against low level fighters. Mokaev was playing with his food against malcolm gordon, but he did legitimately gas & likely would have gone to a lackluster decision with one of the worst 125ers on the roster had he not fallen into the submission. I don’t really think it was a skill issue but Mokaev was just fighting stupid that fight; from trying to be anderson silva on the feet to letting himself get suplexed, it was just a bad performance. Then there was the near fight ending submission against filho. This time mokaev dominated outside of that submission but still I just don’t like to see stuff like this become a habit. Especially now that mokaev is facing his first ranked opponent. Elliott’s record is ugly but theres a reason hes been in the top 15 this whole time. Tim has only lost to people in the top 5 or who have been champions & some of those fights were competitive. For example, he was beating figgy and royval before getting finished & managed to take a round off of mighty mouse. Funky is the best way to describe tim’s style; he just does weird things in his fights. His striking is some of the strangest things you will see. Despite this it is oddly effective, Tim has been able to catch people like tagir or nicolau with punches because they come from weird angles that you dont expect. Tim’s wrestling is also very good; imo one of the best in the division. This should be a great test for mokaev because wrestling is tim’s bread & butter and he also has the most takedowns landed in the division. Even against the two dagis hes fought Tim was defending a ton of takedowns (they went a combined 2/17). I do think mokaev will be able to score takedowns but I don’t think hes going to be able to get a lot of control. The same goes for Elliot. I think we are gonna see a ton of wrestling scrambles until someone gasses out. While we’ve seen mokaev gas out when hes not the one dominating the wrestling, tim has a history of gassing out. I think neither guy is going to have a lot of control time & eventually elliott is gonna get tired and slip up into a submission from mokaev. 

Yahya vs Peek  
Peek KO RD 1

This is the most random matchmaking on the card but im all here for it. Yahya is homegrown “talent” from UAE Warriors & is only here as a favor to the Emratis. Watching his tape, Yahya is just not ufc level. He has the basic skills in most aspects of mma but its all at a very low level. I say this not just because hes beating bad fighters but his performances are also horrible. Hes fighting guys with much less experience than him & every fight hes going to war with these guys. His striking is very basic kickboxing. I guess from a technical standpoint he is a better striker than peek, but peek brings a level of aggression that yahya can’t deal with. Yahya’s striking is the occasional jab and hooks. His defense is so bad & he gets dropped or rocked almost every fight. One thing I noticed is that while he is brawling with his opponents, his fights often consist of them exchanging for a few seconds, then a short pause before striking again. Peek does not fight like that; he is forward pressure at all times, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at you. Peek has a block head & can’t seem to be koed by anything, so he will just march forward and try to kill you. Yahya has gone 5 rounds before but not at a pace close to what peek brings. Yahya’s cardio honestly didn’t look that great in his fights either. Yahya does try to grapple his opponents a lot. He is able to get them down & just rides out top control but he can be easily reversed or swept. The grappling caliber of his opponents is low level & while peek is clueless on the ground, he simply does not accept being there. He is just going to muscle his way back up should he get taken down. Its funny, peek is one of the lowest skilled fighters on the card yet I think he is a lock. Yahya is not ufc level to begin with but this style is really bad for him. Theyre just gonna trade until peek knocks him out. Maybe this gets extended longer than it should because yahya gets a takedown but I really dont see him being able to get significant control time here. 


Basharat vs Henry  
Basharat DEC 

This is a wild fight. Henry came out of nowhere & threw himself straight into the deep end of 135 with his crazy performance against barcelos. He met Barcelos right in the middle & just disrespected him. Watching Henry’s tape again, thats the best way to describe his fight style; disrespectful. Henry is not the most technically sound striker nor he is some world champion kickboxer. Henry is just a guy who likes to make things ugly. He walks you down and throws insane volume with tons of stabbing front kicks & punches galore. Henry gets hit a lot but he knows exactly how to roll with punches and fire back in the pocket. The thing that confused me the most about henry was how he looked so good against barcelos but so bad against assuncao. Assuncao fought with such a good game plan against Henry. Instead of trying to trade, Assuncao circled around the cage & switched up his movements to throw henry off. Every time Henry tried to throw a kick assuncao was meeting him right there with a counter right. We saw Gravely have success on the feet by not staying in place & mixing in takedown attempts. When Gravely stood in front of Henry in round 2 he got annihilated, so this shows that the key to beating Henry’s style is by having good footwork. Now, this is much easier said than done but, Javid has the exact style necessary to beat Henry. Javid hates pressure & as a result uses his length and footwork to keep people at bay & pick them apart with his tools. Javid just flows out there on the feet, every person hes faced has just been outclassed when they try and stand with him. Javid uses all of his limbs & constantly mixes his attacks up. One thing about him that frustrates me is his finishing ability. Javid has had so many moments where he hurts his opponents but he doesn’t want to take any risks. While it is a little frustrating, I don’t mind it that much because Javid is almost always in control of the fight as a result of his minimal risk taking. Henry will be able to have his moments, especially if he is able to corner Javid near the fence but I think Javid is too elusive for the most part. He is going to constantly be moving around and picking apart Henry with his jab and leg kicks. Javid is also very good at making reads & henry’s striking leaves a lot of openings. I also like that Javid had more time to prepare for this opponent as it gives him more time to perfect a game plan. 

* Edited at 10.15.2023, 4:27 PM ET *

Makhachev vs Volk 2 
 Islam DEC 

I was planning to pick volk when these two rematched but i was not expecting this to be on short notice. I was so impressed with how volk handled the size difference last time out. He did struggle at times but he was able to do a lot of damage to islam and did surprisingly well in the grappling department. He lost the early rounds due to grappling but in round 5 he was actually getting the better of islam. At the end of the day I think that the size difference is too much. On a full camp volk could very well win this fight, hell he might even do it here. But much like usman, theres just too much going against him. If anyone can pull off this feat, it would be volk but i just dont see it sadly. 

Usman vs Chimaev  
Chimaev KO RD 2

Its so weird that both these guys should really bet at 170 but due to the circumstances its up a weight class. I imagine cutting less weight is better for usman. He never seemed to be affected by the weight cuts but he is older so you never know. As for khamzat I think going  to 185 is very beneficial. Hes cutting less weight which should help his gas tank but he can also bulk up even more now that hes at 185. With this extended break I think khamzat has had time to fill into the middleweight frame. Im very curious what chimaev’s gameplan is going to be here. If he wrestles I wonder if hes going to have any success at all. Historically, Usman has some of the best tdd ever. The only time hes ever been taken down was a weird off balance moment against leon & he has defended every other attempt (although colby def got a takedown in the rematch). I can’t help but feel chimaev’s wrestling is overrated. Now before you come at me, obviously he is an elite level wrestler but because of how his ufc run has started, people expect him to shoot a takedown & the fight will end. It was very weird how he didn’t wrestle gilbert much in their fight but maybe he was scared of the bjj. Usman does not have the bjj level of burns but his wrestling is way better. Stylistically, Usman has never fought a wrestler like chimaev. In all of his other fights, Chimaev shoots instantly & will continue to chain wrestle until he gets you down. In his prime, Usman can defend multiple shots no problem. But now up a weight class, on short notice, and with very shot knees I am curious to see how he deals with chimaev’s chain wrestling, should that be his gameplan. If Khamzat tries hard enough I could see him getting usman down but, im not relying on it. In fact, I think this is likely gonna be all standup. Its funny because both are not strikers by trade. Their striking is high level in that they would maul anyone outside the top 15 but for elite fighters in the top 5 both guys have a lot of holes in their striking; their physicality & power go a long way. Chimaev has a good jab, solid leg kicks, and insane natural power. He hits so hard and never stops coming forward. However, he gets hit a lot due to his aggressiveness, he often throws punches & leaves himself open or off balance, and he would just blatantly leave his chin up when throwing. Usman’s striking isn’t pretty either. For most of his career it was honestly quite bad, it wasn’t until the past few years that he really became comfortable with his hands. Even still its not very pretty but it works. Everything for usman starts with his jab. His jab is a laser beam. He then uses that to set up his hooks and his straight punches. Whne you break it down Usman’s striking is simple but it is very effective. I dont see either having much wrestling success here. If someone does I think it will be khamzat but i see this mostly being a standup fight. In that case I have to favor khamzat. He is reckeless but he is going to push an insane pace the whole fight. When it gets ugly usman does get rocked a lot. I don’t think his chin is what it used to be at all. I think usman is still very good but he looked very old in the leon rematch. He was much slower than before, his wrestling looked bad, and he was not reacting to shots well. I also can’t pick him due to this being short notice. I wouldn’t be shocked by an upset because kamaru is a phenomenal fighter but i think the cards are stacked against him. 

Ankalaev vs Walker  
Ankalaev KO RD 2

Ankalaev is a very frustrating fighter. Skill wise he is one of the best in the division but he never uses his full skillset & often times fights to his opponents level, making fights way closer than they need to be. In the aftermath of 292, Ankalaev pledged to finish fights more & he is getting the perfect matchup for a finish, it all depends on if he wants it or not. Johnny walker is a meme fighter but he has found a patch of consistency as of late. Walker is a super dynamic striker with a ridiculously large frame & freak athleticism. His best quality is he brings an element of chaos that you cant prepare for. Whether its a sloppy bar fight or a very boring sparring match; nothing normal happens in a johnny walker fight. Despite his recent win streak, I don’t know any area that walker is better. Walker has the size advantage and crazy athleticism but he is not a great striker. Ankalaev will pick him apart, especially with how bad walkers defense is. He doesn’t move his head at all & relies on his height. Not to mention, walkers chin is glass, he just hasn’t been put out in a while. Ankalaev has ko power, it just depends on how hes going to approach this fight. With how easily johnny’s chin presents itself I think he will find the chin. Then again, ankalaev likes boring fights so maybe he wrestles. His wrestling is great & johnny is very easy to take down. Regardless of whether this is a bad fight or not I think Ank should take this really easy.


Aliskerov vs Alves  
Aliskerov KO RD 1

Gotta love how the ufc is willing to give ikram anyone in the top 15, but now that they needed a short notice guy they call a washed up WW. Why protect the guy if you want to push him? Rewatching tape on Ikram has changed my opinion on him. While I do still think Costa & Ikram would’ve destroyed him, I think Ikram is easily top 10-15 level. What was really off putting to me was his fights vs Hanekom and Burrell. The former was early on in Ikrams career so that explains some of it but it was really concerning to see the supposed elite combat sambo champ struggle to get takedowns & gas against someone as bad as hanekom. The latter was before dwcs against an ex-ufc journeyman. Ikram did clearly win this fight 30-27, but it was a poor performance. Burrell hit a JV wrestling level switch on ikram & ikram could not take him down for significant amounts of time. His cardio also looked bad. However, after watching his other performances & realizing that he missed weight in this fight, I don’t think its as bad as it looks. He must’ve been sick or injured because he didn’t have any of his normal explosiveness in his striking and his wrestling just looked awful compared to his other fights. In his other fights, Ikram looks great. His takedowns are super explosive; he uses all of his upper body strength to throw you down but has all sorts of different ways to get the fight down. When he is on top he has a tendency to sit there and not do much but other times he shows urgency. When he does this he either throws a ton of gnp or looks for his signature kimura sub. Ikrams striking is weird; he looks very stiff and has weird movement but his striking is very effective. He has a ton of power and throws head kicks, knees, and elbows a lot. However he doesn’t move his head well and theres just an awkwardness to his striking. Alves has had a very weird ufc career; he was once a really promising prospect but struggled to stay consistent. In these past few years he has fallen off of a cliff. He has one round of gas, his striking has somehow regressed, and he just doesn’t look like he wants to be there. Alves has some really good body kicks but nowadays he looks like he forgot how to strike. His head never moves off the center and he is very stationary. He is going to be a sitting target for ikram’s strikes & i really wouldn’t be shocked if ikram sleeps him cold. Coming up to 185, there is a big size disadvantage for alves. They are almost the same height but Ikram looks like he could fight at 205; add in the already high level grappling of ikram & it equals a very poor time for alves. Unless he does a guillotine similar to the covington fight idk how he wins. Ikram will dominate with grappling but honestly I think he will put alves out cold. Alves looks so stiff & going up in weight against a huge guy with power is a tough ask. 

* Edited at 10.15.2023, 4:27 PM ET *

Makhachev vs. Volkanovski II
Alexander Volkanovski, TKO, R2
Volk via rolling thunder.

Usman vs. Chimaev
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Usman is gonna hold Khamzat against the cage and stomp his toes, ya'll musta forgot.

Ankalaev vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
WALKERS MANA IS OFF THE CHARTS, HIS KNEE IS GONNA FLOAT RIGHT ONTO ANKALAEVS CHIN!

Aliskerov vs. Alves
Ikram Aliskerov, TKO, R2
Alves gasses and gets TKOd in R2.

Nurmagomedov vs. Gafurov
Muin Gafurov, DEC
Gafurov cannot go 0-3 against UFC level competition (this is a cope pick).

Elliott vs. Mokaev
Tim Elliott, DEC
Eye poke to nutshot to cage grab flying armaplata, the ultimate Tim Elliott combo.

Yahya vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R1
BIG BAWMBS

Basharat vs. Henry
Javid Basharat, DEC
Javid is going to dominantly and violently DECISION Victory Henry.

Ikram vs Warlley is such a waste of a fight. Hate that Imamov pulled out.

I like your new avatar 😂

Amazing 3 part analysis and I agree with you on all your picks except Peek. I do agree that Peek's intensity will be a lot to handle, but I think he does not have the cardio and will gas out by the second round. I think Yahya will win the last two rounds and will get the decision win.

Thank for taking the time to provide us with your thorough predictions 👍

* Edited at 10.15.2023, 7:32 PM ET *